• Update 5:

Some American press coverage of Connolly’s win:

“Ireland, in a cautionary rebuke to the governing establishment, has voted overwhelmingly to elect an outspoken leftist to the country’s mostly ceremonial presidency — a landslide victory for an independent lawmaker who has accused NATO of ‘warmongering’ and built her campaign on demands for economic justice at home and fury over the plight of Gaza abroad.” —  Washington Post, via London.

“Independent socialist Catherine Connolly swept to a landslide victory Saturday to become Ireland’s next president, dealing a record-breaking rebuke to the two center-ground parties of government. — Longtime Ireland correspondent Shawn Pogatchnik of Politico.eu, via Dublin.

“Left-wing independent Catherine Connolly, who secured the backing of Ireland’s left-leaning parties including Sinn Féin, has won the country’s presidential election in a landslide victory against her center-right rival.” —  Associated Press, via London

As of 8 a.m. Eastern, Oct. 26, the New York Times had no coverage of the election result. The Times finally reported the election results Nov. 2.

Update 4:

Catherine Connolly is officially the tenth president of Ireland. She secured 63.36 percent of the first preference tally, a total of 914,143 votes, compared to 29.46 percent for Heather Humphreys and 7.18 percent for withdrawn candidate Jim Gavin.

Nearly 214,000 voters submitted spoiled ballots, almost 13 percent. That dwarfs the slightly more than 1 percent  of spoiled ballots in the 2018 and 2011 presidential elections. The 46 percent turnout slightly exceeded the last election.

Connolly will be officially inaugurated on Nov. 11.

Update 3:

Leftwing independent TD Catherine Connolly is cruising to an overwhelming victory as Ireland’s tenth president. Heather Humphreys has conceded.

Connolly has secured roughly 64 percent share of the vote based on incomplete results, according to the Irish Times and other media. Humphreys is bumping along around 30 percent, and withdrawn candidate Jim Gavin about 7 percent.

But the biggest story of the election is that disgruntled voters, unhappy with the choices, have spoiled an unprecedented number of the ballots, currently estimated at 13 percent. (This is not included in the percentage totals above.) … Results are still being tabulated.

Update 2:

Polls have closed in Ireland’s tenth presidential election under the 1937 Constitution. Counting will begin Saturday morning and the winner could be declared quickly if pre-election polling, which strongly favors Connolly, is correct. Here are some key numbers to watch:

• 1.2 percent; spoiled votes in the last presidential election in 2018. A significantly higher number this year could signal widespread disenchantment with the two candidates.
• 12.5 percent; first-preference vote threshold for Fianna Fáil to recoup some of its election expenses for nominating Jim Gavin, who dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot. Irish elections are capped at €750,000; campaigns can claim a reimbursement of up to one third that amount.
• 15-19 points; the margin of Connolly’s lead in three pre-election polls.
• 44 percent; turnout in the 2018 presidential election, or just under 1.5 million voters. Early totals suggest turnout will be lower, perhaps under 40 percent.
• 55.81 percent; outgoing President Michael D. Higgins’ first preference share in the six-person 2018 contest.
• 822,566; Higgins’ first-preference vote total, enough for the 50 percent plus one needed to secure reelection.
• 3.6 million; eligible voters, about 300,000 more than the November 2024 general election.

Update 1:

Voting is underway in Ireland. … Both candidates have cast their ballots: Catherine Connolly in Galway city, underdog Heather Humphreys in Monaghan. Outgoing President Michael D. Higgins has voted in Dublin. … Polls are open until 10 p.m. Irish time, or 5 p.m. US Eastern time. … The weather is cold and damp, with showers forecast in many parts of the country but periods of sun. … Election officials expect a low turnout.

Original post:

Irish voters on Friday will decide a two-woman contest for president. The candidates are leftwing independent TD Catherine Connolly, backed by Sinn Féin and Labour, and former Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys, a center-right establishment figure. Connolly is widely expected to win, based on polling and debate performances. But Irish voters have surprised political pundits in the past.

In addition to monitoring Irish media coverage, I’ve reached out to family members in Kerry and Meath, as well as several Irish historian friends in Dublin to help assess the election. Some of their comments are attributed, others are kept anonymous on request.

In general, the Irish electorate is grumpy and dissatisfied with the binary choice. “Unenthused” is the word one of my correspondents used. “Resignation” was another. Historian and former public servant Felix M. Larkin wrote:

“My very personal take on the election is that we have been badly served by the establishment parties. The long-mooted Fine Gael candidate had to pull out because of health issues and, like Kamala Harris, Humphreys was parachuted in at the eleventh hour and was manifestly unprepared for the campaign. Fianna Fáil opted for a ‘celebrity’ candidate who was totally unqualified for the job and whose campaign imploded when past shenanigans as a landlord embarrassingly came to light.”

The “celebrity” candidate was Jim Gavin, the former GAA coach whose campaign was sidelined by the revelation that he failed to refund €3,300 in back rent to a former tenant. The tenant turned out to be a Sunday World journalist. Gavin withdrew from the race on Oct. 6, but his name remains on the ballot.

At least Ireland has been spared the spectacle of having far-right mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor in the race. He almost makes Donald Trump look like a choir boy.

Several of my correspondents said they will reluctantly vote for Humphreys, thus the possibility of a surprise outcome (HH instead of CC) mentioned at the top of this post. One of my relations is considering spoiling her ballot in protest.

Larkin said Sinn Féin and Ireland’s “responsible left parties” (Labour and the Social Democrats) seemed to back Connolly based on a strategy “to chase the chimera of a ‘United Left’ coalition for the next General Election. Did they ever think Connolly could win?  I doubt it, but the unimaginable appears to be about to happen.”