(This post will be updated until the election result is announced, probably Saturday, Oct. 25. Email subscribers should check the website directly for the latest details. MH)
Irish voters on Friday will decide a two-woman contest for president. The candidates are leftwing independent TD Catherine Connolly, backed by Sinn Féin and Labour, and former Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys, a center-right establishment figure. Connolly is widely expected to win, based on polling and debate performances. But Irish voters have surprised political pundits in the past.
Ghost candidate: Gavin’s campaign signs are still posted in Dublin, and his name remains on the ballot. Daniel Carey photo.
In addition to monitoring Irish media coverage, I’ve reached out to family members in Kerry and Meath, as well as several Irish historian friends in Dublin to help assess the election. Some of their comments are attributed, others are kept anonymous on request.
In general, the Irish electorate is grumpy and dissatisfied with the binary choice. “Unenthused” is the word one of my correspondents used. “Resignation” was another. Historian and former public servant Felix M. Larkin wrote:
“My very personal take on the election is that we have been badly served by the establishment parties. The long-mooted Fine Gael candidate had to pull out because of health issues and, like Kamala Harris, Humphreys was parachuted in at the eleventh hour and was manifestly unprepared for the campaign. Fianna Fáil opted for a ‘celebrity’ candidate who was totally unqualified for the job and whose campaign imploded when past shenanigans as a landlord embarrassingly came to light.”
The “celebrity” candidate was Jim Gavin, the former GAA coach whose campaign was sidelined by the revelation that he failed to refund €3,300 in back rent to a former tenant. The tenant turned out to be a Sunday World journalist. Gavin withdrew from the race on Oct. 6, but his name remains on the ballot.
At least Ireland has been spared the spectacle of having far-right mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor in the race. He almost makes Donald Trump look like a choir boy.
Several of my correspondents said they will reluctantly vote for Humphreys, thus the possibility of a surprise outcome (HH instead of CC) mentioned at the top of this post. One of my relations is considering spoiling her ballot in protest.
Larkin said Sinn Féin and Ireland’s “responsible left parties” (Labour and the Social Democrats) seemed to back Connolly based on a strategy “to chase the chimera of a ‘United Left’ coalition for the next General Election. Did they ever think Connolly could win? I doubt it, but the unimaginable appears to be about to happen.”